If you were hoping the winter snow and spring rains were going to bring Charlevoix's water level back toward normal, you are likely to be disappointed again this year. The Army Corps of Engineers, which is charged with forecasting these levels, now figures the level will most likely be 5 inches lower this summer than it was last summer and 11 inches below the long-term average.

But the Corps projects a range of levels, with a five-inch drop the most likely result of current conditions. But it could be more, maybe eight inches lower, or it could return to the level of last summer. Such are the vagaries of predicting how much rain may fall on the Great Lakes and how fast as well as how hot it will be and thus how much water will be lost to evaporation.

Because of the direct connection to Lake Michigan via the Pine River and Round Lake, Charlevoix is effectively at the same level as Michigan and Huron, which are similarly linked through the Mackinac Straits. The Corps does not make a separate projection for Lake Charlevoix.

Historically, the levels are at the lowest part of their annual cycle in January, February and March. This year the level was about the same as the level at the same time last year. But last year's levels were up only a bit from the lows of 2008, and Charlevoix remains eight inches below the long term average.

The current forecast is that in July and August, when the levels are usually highest, Charlevoix will be about 11 inches under the long-term average of 578.7 feet above sea level. In 1986 the lakes reached a historic high of 581.5 feet; in 1964, they were at their lowest, 576.1 feet, which is nearly two feet down from the forecast for this year. Until the middle of the 19th Century, Lake Charlevoix was about four feet higher than Lake Michigan. But a channel was cut after the Civil War to allow deep-draft commercial and recreational vessels to navigate between Charlevoix, Round Lake and on to Lake Michigan. Although the need for a commercial channel has all but vanished, there are no current plans to fill the man-made connection and return Charlevoix to its more stable lake levels and its original independence from the Great Lakes.

Click here for Army Corps of Engineers data on lake levels for 2008-2010